The electricity sector in Bangladesh has a distinct solar development trajectory, shaped initially by large-scale off grid deployment before gradually transitioning toward utility scale expansion. Early growth was driven by the Solar Home System program, which enabled widespread rural electrification and established solar as a viable energy solution. Building on this foundation, solar is now emerging as one of the fastest growing technologies in the renewable capacity mix as the country expands grid connected capacity. Against this backdrop, Bangladesh’s solar PV capacity is forecast to increase from approximately 1.3GW in 2025 to around 8.5GW by 2035, according to GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform.

GlobalData’s latest report, “Bangladesh Power Market Trends and Analysis by Capacity, Generation, Transmission, Distribution, Regulations, Key Players and Forecast to 2035”, reveals that the country’s cumulative renewable capacity is expected to reach approximately 9GW by 2035, with solar playing a key role in driving incremental renewable growth.

Mohammed Ziauddin, Power Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Solar PV is expected to remain the primary driver of renewable expansion in Bangladesh, supported by its scalability and suitability under local conditions. However, overall renewable growth is expected to remain gradual, reflecting structural and system level constraints.”

Solar expansion in Bangladesh reflects a transition from its globally recognized off-grid foundation toward grid-connected and distributed generation models. Early deployment was driven by the Solar Home System program implemented through Infrastructure Development Company Limited, which leveraged microfinance networks and private sector participation to deliver large-scale rural electrification. Building on this base, current growth is increasingly supported by rooftop solar adoption across commercial and industrial segments, enabled by net metering frameworks and rising participation from energy intensive industries seeking to manage electricity costs and improve supply reliability.

At the utility scale, solar development is being shaped by a combination of policy incentives and structural constraints. Fiscal measures, including tax holidays, import duty exemptions, and value added tax relief on solar equipment, continue to improve project economics and attract investment.

Ziauddin adds: “At the same time, high population density and limited land availability are driving innovation in deployment models, including floating solar, solar irrigation systems, and public-private partnership frameworks that facilitate access to government-owned land. Together with favorable solar irradiation and declining technology costs, these factors are supporting a gradual but broad-based expansion of solar capacity across multiple segments.”

Wind power is expected to play a limited role in Bangladesh’s power mix, with onshore wind capacity projected to increase modestly from around 71MW in 2025 to approximately 281MW by 2035, while offshore wind remains minimal.

Thermal power continues to dominate the electricity system, with gas-fired capacity expected to increase from approximately 15.3GW in 2025 to around 20.1GW by 2035, maintaining its position as the primary source of generation. Coal capacity is projected to increase gradually to around 7.7GW, while oil-based capacity remains relatively stable around 9GW over the forecast period.

In parallel, nuclear power is expected to emerge within the generation mix with the development of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, with total nuclear capacity projected to reach approximately 2.2GW by 2035, providing additional baseload capacity and supporting long-term energy security objectives.

Ziauddin concludes: “Over the next decade, Bangladesh’s power sector is expected gradually scale up solar capacity as a key component of its energy mix, supported by continued policy incentives, expansion of distributed solar solutions, and growing participation from industrial consumers. At the same time, thermal will continue to play a central role in ensuring supply reliability, supporting a balanced and resilient electricity system.”

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